Strategie di adattamento al cambiamento climatico per il settore vitivinicolo: un’applicazione della Teoria del Prospetto Cumulativo

Abstract

The work analyses adaptation strategies to cope with extreme events and climate change in viticultural sector. Tools for complex systems analysis are integrated with probabilistic methods and operational research to account for uncertainty and the subjective perception of farmers. The concepts of Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory are considered to compare expected and prospected damages. The study area is located in the Chianti Classico district (Tuscany). A combination of fans, anti-hail nets and emergency irrigation is suggested as strategies in current scenario. The future climate projections suggest the need of fixed irrigation systems and the modification of production disciplinary. Multi-risk insurance does not seem to be an attractive strategy due to area peculiarities.