Quaderni dell'Osservatorio elettorale QOE - IJES 2020-08-02T13:28:50+00:00 QOE Editorial Board Open Journal Systems <p><em><strong>Quaderni dell'Osservatorio elettorale</strong></em><strong>&nbsp;(QOE) – Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES) - </strong>is an international scientific journal dedicated to all different dimensions of elections and voting.</p> <p>Founded in 1977 by Mario Caciagli (University of Florence), QOE-IJES is a reference for electoral studies in Italy. Almost half a century later, QOE-IJES is now the official journal of the Italian Society for Electoral Studies (SISE) thanks to an agreement between the SISE and the Regione Toscana. The Journal aims at continuing publishing high-quality original papers from both Italian and international scholars, with the aim to further becoming a major outlet of elections and voting, public opinion, political behavior, and party studies in Italy and beyond.</p> <p>Along with the contributions of established scholars, the journal hosts and encourages the work of younger researchers.</p> New year, new phase for QOE-IJES 2020-08-02T13:28:50+00:00 Paolo Bellucci Silvia Bolgherini 2020-07-28T09:49:28+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 Paolo Bellucci, Silvia Bolgherini An italic obsession: electoral reforms 2020-08-02T13:28:23+00:00 Alessandro Chiaramonte <p class="p1">The history of Italy is plenty of reforms of the electoral system. Many are those implemented since the country’s unification: from the majority system to the limited vote, from proportional representation to the majority premium in the liberal era; and, again, in the Republican era, the return to proportional representation and then the use of mixed systems, combining PR with plurality or majority premium. And many other are the reforms which, discussed and sometimes even approved, as in the case of the italicum, have remained dead letter or never saw the light. What explains this Italic obsession with the electoral systems? Why have their reforms been on the parties’ and governments’ political agenda for so long? The goal of this article is to answer these questions. In the end, electoral reforms have played as instruments of coordination and adaptation in the political strategies pursued by the parties in specific time periods and also as substitute instruments of institutional engineering in the absence of broader agreements on major constitutional reforms.</p> 2020-07-28T09:50:10+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 Alessandro Chiaramonte Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction 2020-08-02T13:27:56+00:00 Natalie Jackson Michael S. Lewis-Beck Charles Tien <p class="p1">In recent US presidential elections, there has been considerable focus on how well public opinion can forecast the outcome, and 2016 proved no exception. Pollsters and poll aggregators regularly offered numbers on the horse-race, usually pointing to a Clinton victory, which failed to occur. We argue that these polling assessments of support were misleading for at least two reasons. First, Trump voters were sorely underestimated, especially at the state level of polling. Second, and more broadly, we suggest that excessive reliance on non-probability sampling was at work. Here we present evidence to support our contention, ending with a plea for consideration of other methods of election forecasting that are not based on vote intention polls.</p> 2020-07-28T09:50:55+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 Natalie Jackson, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Charles Tien Some politics is local: the determinants of engagement in local and national politics across Europe 2020-08-02T13:27:30+00:00 João Cancela <p class="p1">Understanding the roots of political engagement has been one of the critical tasks performed by students of comparative political behaviour. This paper adds to the literature by examining the determinants of political discussion about local and national affairs in Europe. A series of multilevel logit models are fitted to the data (n = 28,563 from 31 European countries) to test the individual and country level determinants of political discussion about local and national matters. At the individual level, we find that gender, the type of community, the type of civil society organisations people are members of, and their level of education affect the type of politics they engage with. At the macro level, citizens from countries with a higher economic development are more likely to engage in discussions about national affairs, while the impact of local government autonomy does not seem to make individuals more likely to engage in discussions about local politics. The findings suggest that if local politics is considered the share of politically disengaged citizens can be smaller than is typically estimated. The full range of democratic practice may thus remain underappreciated if non-national politics is left out of the picture in the study of political engagement.</p> 2020-07-28T09:51:33+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 João Cancela The representative deficit in different European Party Systems: an analysis of the elections to the European Parliament 2009-2014 2020-08-02T13:27:04+00:00 Jonathan Bright Diego Garzia Joseph Lacey Alexander H. Trechsel <p class="p1">This paper explores the extent to which different party systems in Europe effectively represent their citizens. We argue that many European countries suffer from a “representative deficit”, which occurs when a significant portion of citizens have to vote for a political party whose stated views are actually quite different from their own. We measure the extent of this deficit in different European countries using data from <em>EU Profiler</em> and <em>euandi</em>, two Voting Advice Applications which served millions of users during the EP elections in 2009 and 2014 respectively. We find wide variation in the extent to which political parties are accurately tuned in to the preferences of their voters, a variation which is not clearly linked to the number of political parties or the proportionality of the electoral system. We attempt to explain some of this variation, and explore the reasons why some party systems offer better representation than others.</p> 2020-07-28T09:52:15+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 Jonathan Bright, Diego Garzia, Joseph Lacey, Alexander H. Trechsel The effect of the media in times of political distrust: the case of European countries 2020-08-02T13:26:38+00:00 Vincenzo Memoli <p class="p1">No study has yet explored the effect of all communication tools on political trust. Instead, studies on the media and their relationship with trust in political institutions have tended to focus on just a few types and have yielded contradictory results. This study aims to fill this gap, considering – on the one hand – television, the press and radio, and – on the other – the Internet and online social networks. Given that forms of media inevitably suffer from political choice as well as the political system, we analyse the effect of the media on public political trust. Based on pool data gathered by Eurobarometers (2014–2017) and multi-level regression techniques, it is possible to state that, of the various forms of media, the press and the Internet have a very significant effect on public political trust, as does media freedom.</p> 2020-07-28T09:52:51+00:00 Copyright (c) 2020 Vincenzo Memoli