Italian Journal of Electoral Studies QOE - IJES <p><em><strong>Quaderni dell'Osservatorio elettorale</strong></em><strong>&nbsp;(QOE) – Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES) - </strong>is an international scientific journal dedicated to all different dimensions of elections and voting.</p> <p>Founded in 1977 by Mario Caciagli (University of Florence), QOE-IJES is a reference for electoral studies in Italy. Almost half a century later, QOE-IJES is now the official journal of the Italian Society for Electoral Studies (SISE) thanks to an agreement between the SISE and the Regione Toscana. The Journal aims at continuing publishing high-quality original papers from both Italian and international scholars, with the aim to further becoming a major outlet of elections and voting, public opinion, political behavior, and party studies in Italy and beyond.</p> <p>Along with the contributions of established scholars, the journal hosts and encourages the work of younger researchers.</p> en-US (QOE Editorial Board) (Alessandro Pierno) Tue, 20 Jul 2021 00:00:00 +0000 OJS 60 Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: A comparative analysis of six EU countries <p class="p1"><span class="s1">This article empirically revisits and tests the effect of individual distance from parties on the EU integration dimension and on the left–right dimension for vote choice in both national and European elections. This analysis is based on the unique European Election Study (EES) 2014 survey panel data from seven EU countries. Our findings show that in most countries the effect of individual distance on the EU integration dimension is positive and significant for both European and national elections. Yet the effect of this dimension is not uniform across all seven countries, revealing two scenarios: one in which it is only relevant for Eurosceptic voters and the other in which it is significant for voters of most parties in the system. The first is mainly related to the presence of a ‘hard’ Eurosceptic party in the party supply, but the second, which indicates a more advanced level of Europeanisation of party systems, is not explained by most current theoretical and empirical contributions. We conclude by proposing two additional explanations for this latter scenario in which the EU integration dimension is present for most voters in both type of elections, including those voting for the main parties. Our findings and further discussion have implications for the understanding of the Europeanisation of national politics and its relationship with vote choice.</span></p> Mariano Torcal, Toni Rodon Copyright (c) 2021 Mariano Torcal, Toni Rodón Tue, 20 Jul 2021 07:43:23 +0000 The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election <p class="p1"><span class="s1">US presidential elections are peculiar contests based on mediation by an Electoral College in which votes are aggregated on a state-by-state basis. In 2020, as in 2016, the outcome was decided by a set of states where the two candidates were equally competitive: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Two geographical stories tend to dominate accounts of what happened in 2020. The first story is based on red (Republican) versus blue (Democratic) states, and the second story relies upon rural versus urban biases in support for the two parties. After showing how and where Donald Trump outperformed the expectations of pre-election polls, we consider these two geographical stories both generally, and more specifically, in relation to the crucial swing states. Through an examination of the successes of Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia, two states long thought of as “red”, and the role of the suburbs and local particularities in producing this result, we conclude that the polarization of the United States into two hostile electorates is exaggerated.<span class="Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span></span></p> John Agnew, Michael Shin Copyright (c) 2021 John Agnew, Michael Shin Tue, 20 Jul 2021 07:45:44 +0000 Issue characterization of electoral change (and how recent elections in Western Europe were won on economic issues) <p class="p1">Results of the last electoral season in Western Europe have been mostly seen in the light of the success of challenger, anti-establishment parties. According to this narrative, past elections have been overwhelmingly dominated by cultural issues such as immigration and the EU. However, these accounts suffer from several limitations. First, they generally focus on the determinants of the static component of electoral results (i.e. vote choice) rather than the factors leading to vote change (i.e. the individual-level component of aggregate electoral change). Second, relying on party manifestos and programmatic platforms, they usually offer a party-based reconstruction of the general climate of elections. As a consequence, they provide only an indirect, at best limited, overview of the actual political issues that might have driven electoral results. To overcome these limitations, in this paper we introduce a new methodological strategy to characterize electoral results in comparative perspective. To do so we leverage an issue-rich public opinion dataset to estimate individual-level vote change towards each party as a function of issue-based party-voter affinity measures in 6 European countries. Relying on 38 logistic regression models (one for each party), our results contradict many current interpretations of electoral results in Western Europe, in fact showing that economic issues, rather than broad cultural ones, emerged as the most relevant predictors of vote inflows. Furthermore, it also demonstrates the relevance of “cross-ideological” mobilization across all the 6 countries covered in this study.</p> Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio Copyright (c) 2021 Davide Angelucci, Lorenzo De Sio Tue, 20 Jul 2021 07:47:54 +0000 Looking through the mirror: representativeness of the Italian party system before the 2018 General Election <p class="p1">The use of the Internet and communication technologies has dramatically increased in recent times. This change has affected every aspect of political life, with electoral campaigns and parties making no exception. One of the most significant advancements on the theme is the spread of Voting Advice Applications (VAAs). These tools are developed before elections to match users’ policy preferences to those of the parties running. By looking at the dataset created with the answers of the users of an Italian VAA, <span class="s1">Navigatore Elettorale</span>, this study aims at understanding the representativeness of the six main parties running in the 2018 General Election. Through the development of a Representative Deficit Index, the study will also assess the key policy areas in which each of these parties performed best in the eyes of the electorate. The finding shows a diversified pattern of (in)successes for each of the parties, with some unexpected results.</p> Beniamino Masi Copyright (c) 2021 Beniamino Masi Tue, 20 Jul 2021 07:50:13 +0000