Climate Change Risk

Abstract

The Earth’s climate system is a complex and non-linear system, whose future evolution cannot be predicted deterministically but only estimated probabilistically through emission scenarios and climate model simulations. Within this framework, climate change risk can be defined as the interaction among the probability of weather and climate events, exposure, and vulnerability. Observational evidence and model projections indicate unprecedented increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature (IPCC, 2021), resulting in hydrological cycle intensification, more frequent and severe extreme events, glacier retreat, and sea-level rise. Urban and coastal areas are particularly exposed, while regions such as the Mediterranean are recognised as climate hotspots, characterised by warming rates above the global average. Risk reduction requires an integrated approach combining emission mitigation and locally tailored adaptation policies to avoid crossing climate system tipping points, and to keep risks within thresholds compatible with sustainable development.