Vol. 19 No. 2 (2024)
Articles

The effect of climate change on spatio-temporal activity in burrowing frogs of the Smilisca group

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  • Alondra Encarnación-Luévano,
  • J. Jesús Sigala-Rodríguez,
  • Gustavo E. Quintero-Díaz,
  • Marcelo Silva Briano,
  • Octavio Rojas-Soto
Alondra Encarnación-Luévano
Colección Zoológica, Departamento de Biología, Centro de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20100, México
J. Jesús Sigala-Rodríguez
Colección Zoológica, Departamento de Biología, Centro de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20100, México
Gustavo E. Quintero-Díaz
Departamento de Biología, Centro de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20100, México
Marcelo Silva Briano
Laboratorio de Ecología, Departamento de Biología, Centro de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma de Aguascalientes, Aguascalientes 20100, México
Octavio Rojas-Soto
Laboratorio de Bioclimatología, Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A. C., Xalapa, Veracruz 91073, México
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/a_h-15232

Published 2024-11-16

Keywords

  • ecological niche modeling,
  • seasonal niche,
  • distribution,
  • anurans,
  • estivation,
  • global warming
    • ...More
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How to Cite

Encarnación-Luévano, A., Sigala-Rodríguez, J. J., Quintero-Díaz, G. E., Silva Briano, M., & Rojas-Soto, O. (2024). The effect of climate change on spatio-temporal activity in burrowing frogs of the Smilisca group. Acta Herpetologica, 19(2), 139–153. https://doi.org/10.36253/a_h-15232

Copyright (c) 2024 Alondra Encarnación-Luévano, José Jesús Sigala-Rodríguez, Gustavo E. Quintero-Díaz, Marcelo Silva-Briano, Octavio Rojas-Soto

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Measuring the potential effects of future climate changes on the spatio-temporal variance of optimal conditions for seasonal species is a key conservation issue. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal patterns of optimal conditions for activity in two burrowing frogs, Smilisca fodiens and S. dentata. Ecological Niche Modeling was used to implement niche seasonality models, with calibration performed during the peak activity (July). These models were then transferred to current and future conditions for the remainder of the year, predicting future scenarios up to 2070 with an intermediate trajectory greenhouse gas concentration of 4.5 W/m2. Climate change transferability was assessed for four potential scenarios: 1) high precipitation and low temperature, 2) high precipitation and high temperature, 3) low precipitation and low temperature, and 4) low precipitation and high temperature. We examined the impact across future projected areas and analyzed geographic change trends based on latitude, longitude, and elevation. For both species, the best scenario would involve increased precipitation in the future. However, the worst-case would be a combination of reduced precipitation and higher temperatures. Due to large area loss, northern populations of S. fodiens may be highly vulnerable. Concerning S. dentata, the outlook is worrisome, with all known populations experiencing losses in most months. Area gains may not help either species since they tend to occur at elevations above their known ranges. Using a seasonal approach in spatio-temporal analysis enhances comprehension of the behavioral adaptations of seasonal species and their vulnerability to current and future climatic variations.

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