Future climate change spells catastrophe for Blanchard’s cricket frog, <i>Acris blanchardi</i> (Amphibia: Anura: Hylidae)

Abstract

Climate change may be one of the greatest environmental catastrophes encountered by modern human civilization. The potential influence of this global disaster on wildlife populations is subject to question. I interpolated how seasonal variation in weather patterns influences growth and reproduction in the Blanchard’s cricket frog (Acris blanchardi). Then I extrapolated the influence of future climate conditions on these life history characteristics using fuzzy regression. Fuzzy regression was an accurate predictor of growth and reproduction based on the climate conditions present from 1900–2007. It predicted that the climate projections expected for Arkansas by 2100 could reduce total reproductive investment in the Blanchard’s cricket frog by 33–94%. If these results reflect responses by other poikilotherms, climate change could induce major population declines in many species. Because poikilotherms represent the vast majority of vertebrates and significant ecosystem components, it is imperative that we implement strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and circumvent this possible catastrophe.