Climate change presents significant conservation challenges, leading to species displacement, population decline, and alterations in phenology, morphology, physiology, and behavior. While highly mobile species can track environmental changes across their range, those with limited dispersal abilities—such as amphibians—often rely on temporal adjustments to their activity patterns to cope with shifting conditions.

A notable example is provided by the burrowing frog species Smilisca dentata and S. fodiens, which have adapted to harsher climatic conditions by becoming more seasonally active. A recently published study in Acta Herpetologica examines the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial activity of these species, using ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling. The study incorporates climatic and biological data collected in July across the species' range and projects future trends under the RCP 4.5 scenario, considering various combinations of temperature and precipitation changes.

Currently, S. fodiens remains active from June to October, while S. dentata is active from June to September. Future projections indicate that S. fodiens may benefit from an expanded range and a longer activity period, potentially extending into November, particularly under scenarios where both temperature and precipitation increase. In contrast, S. dentata is expected to experience a range contraction, with the most severe declines occurring under conditions of rising temperatures combined with reduced precipitation. However, the extent of range stability, expansion, or shrinkage will ultimately depend on future climatic trends, with S. dentata facing a more precarious future.

Burrowing behavior provides both species with a temporary refuge from extreme environmental conditions by allowing them to access cooler, more stable microclimates. However, even this adaptive strategy may not be sufficient to keep pace with the rapid progression of climate change. The vulnerability of these species highlights the need to consider both species-specific plasticity and the accelerating rate of environmental shifts when assessing the long-term impacts of climate change on amphibians.

Click here to read the full paper.

See you in two weeks!