Accelerating climate change has become a major challenge for conservation biology, particularly in biodiversity hotspots. Species are increasingly forced to shift their historical distribution ranges, but endemic and threatened species often lack the capacity to cope with the habitat alteration and fragmentation driven by the combined effects of global warming and land-use change.

This pressure is especially evident among Andean South America's coral snakes—particularly range-restricted, habitat-specialized species. A study just accepted for publication in Acta Herpetologica examines the impact of climate change on the Santander coral snake (Micrurus sangilensis), a vulnerable species inhabiting the imperiled dry forests of the Cundinamarca, Boyacá, Santander, and Casanare departments in Colombia.

Using Ecological Niche Modeling, the study projected habitat suitability for the species under several Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The authors ran multiple models combining different sets of bioclimatic variables to characterize the ecological conditions defining the species' current range, then simulated future scenarios across various Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and SSPs.

The results identify certain regions likely to remain stable across GCMs, potentially serving as climate refugia. However, the study also projects a significant contraction in suitable habitat for M. sangilensis under every SSP scenario considered. Critically, the pace of climate-driven change—compounded by ongoing habitat fragmentation—may outstrip the species' dispersal capacity, leaving it unable to colonize newly suitable areas as they emerge.

These findings underscore the need for an integrated conservation strategy to safeguard the habitats that sustain the Santander coral snake. Ensuring the species' survival under a changing climate will require a multidisciplinary approach, including the expansion of protected areas, restoration of degraded habitat, establishment of ecological corridors, and ongoing monitoring of land-use change.

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