Vol. 19 No. 2 (2024)
Articles

Uncertain future and uncertain projections: assessing extinction risks in European salamanders from projected chytrid fungus invasion using IUCN Criterion E

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  • Stefano Canessa ,
  • Dino Biancolini,
  • Mattia Iannella,
  • Ilaria Bernabò,
  • Daniele Salvi,
  • Leonardo Vignoli,
  • Enrico Lunghi,
  • Andrea Costa,
  • Edoardo Razzetti,
  • Gentile Francesco Ficetola,
  • Antonio Romano
Stefano Canessa
Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 10, 20133 Milano, Italy
Dino Biancolini
Istituto per la Bioeconomia (IBE), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Via dei Taurini 19, I- 00185, Roma, Italy
Mattia Iannella
Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica, Sanità Pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente (MeSVA), Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio snc, 67100, L’Aquila, Italy
Ilaria Bernabò
Dipartimento di Biologia, Ecologia e Scienze della Terra (DiBEST), Università della Calabria, Via P. Bucci 4/B, I-87036, Rende (CS), Italy
Daniele Salvi
Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica, Sanità Pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente (MeSVA), Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio snc, 67100, L’Aquila, Italy
Leonardo Vignoli
Dipartimento di Scienze, Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Viale Guglielmo Marconi 446, 00146 Roma, Italy
Enrico Lunghi
Dipartimento di Medicina Clinica, Sanità Pubblica, Scienze della Vita e dell’Ambiente (MeSVA), Università degli Studi dell’Aquila, Via Vetoio snc, 67100, L’Aquila, Italy
Andrea Costa
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, dell’Ambiente e della Vita (DISTAV), Università degli Studi di Genova, Corso Europa 26, 16132, Genova, Italy
Edoardo Razzetti
Museo di Storia Naturale, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Piazza Botta 9/10, 27100 Pavia, Italy
Gentile Francesco Ficetola
Dipartimento di Scienze e Politiche Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria 10, 20133 Milano, Italy
Antonio Romano
Istituto per la Bioeconomia (IBE), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Via dei Taurini 19, I- 00185, Roma, Italy
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/a_h-16840

Published 2024-11-26

Keywords

  • Chytridiomycosis,
  • pathogen modeling,
  • conservation priorities,
  • Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans,
  • environmental suitability,
  • salamander disease
    • ...More
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How to Cite

Canessa , S., Biancolini, D., Iannella, M., Bernabò, I., Salvi, D., Vignoli, L., Lunghi, E., Costa, A., Razzetti, E., Ficetola, G. F., & Romano, A. (2024). Uncertain future and uncertain projections: assessing extinction risks in European salamanders from projected chytrid fungus invasion using IUCN Criterion E. Acta Herpetologica, 19(2), 155–159. https://doi.org/10.36253/a_h-16840

Copyright (c) 2024 Stefano Canessa , Antonio Romano, Dino Biancolini, Mattia Iannella, Ilaria Bernabò, Daniele Salvi, Leonardo Vignoli, Enrico Lunghi, Andrea Costa, Edoardo Razzetti, Gentile Francesco Ficetola

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Amphibians are among the most threatened vertebrates globally, and their conservation status continues to decline. In the updated Global Amphibian Assessment (GAA2), the use of IUCN Criterion E, which projects extinction risks through quantitative models, highlighted southern Europe as a hotspot for salamander extinction risk due to the risk of invasion by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). In particular, for five Italian salamander species, risk categories were elevated significantly based on Criterion E, from Vulnerable or lower to Endangered or Critically Endangered. This increased reliance on Criterion E raises concerns regarding its treatment of uncertainty, as these projections depend heavily on assumptions about Bsal spread, environmental suitability, and host dynamics. Limited exploration of alternative scenarios and reliance on extreme parameter values may result in inflated extinction risk estimates. We emphasize the need for improved documentation of uncertainty and integration of diverse expert opinions in extinction risk assessments, to balance proactive conservation planning with robust scientific methodology.

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