Forward and Backward GVC Participation in Agriculture and Food Manufacturing: Comparative Developments in the EU and RCEP

Abstract

In recent decades, global value chains (GVCs) have reshaped international trade, cross-border production, and specialization. Yet agriculture and food manufacturing remain underrepresented in comparative regional GVC research. This paper examines how countries in the European Union (EU) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) integrate into GVCs in these sectors. Distinguishing between forward and backward participation, it identifies structural and institutional drivers of different integration modes. Using inter-country input-output data for 2001–2022 and sector-level decomposition, participation rates are calculated for 42 countries. The results reveal clear sectoral asymmetries: backward participation is much higher in food manufacturing, especially in the EU, whereas forward participation is stronger in agriculture and driven by raw material exports. Regression results show backward participation is mainly explained by income levels, with tariffs mattering only in agriculture. Forward participation is more complex, with significant effects from development-status shifts only in agriculture, not in food manufacturing.