Vol. 13 No. 4 (2024)
Full Research Articles

Simulating farm structural change dynamics in Thessaly (Greece) using a recursive programming model

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  • Stamatis Mantziaris,
  • Stelios Rozakis,
  • Pavlos Karanikolas,
  • Athanasios Petsakos,
  • Konstantinos Tsiboukas
Stamatis Mantziaris
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
Stelios Rozakis
School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania Crete, Greece
Pavlos Karanikolas
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
Athanasios Petsakos
Department of Performance, Innovation and Strategic Analysis for Impact, Bioversity International, Rome, Italy
Konstantinos Tsiboukas
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-14790

Published 2024-09-02

Keywords

  • farm structural change,
  • land use change,
  • recursive programming model,
  • arable production system,
  • Greece

How to Cite

Mantziaris, S., Rozakis, S., Karanikolas, P., Petsakos, A., & Tsiboukas, K. (2024). Simulating farm structural change dynamics in Thessaly (Greece) using a recursive programming model. Bio-Based and Applied Economics, 13(4), 353–386. https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-14790

Copyright (c) 2023 Stamatis Mantziaris, Stelios Rozakis, Pavlos Karanikolas, Athanasios Petsakos, Konstantinos Tsiboukas

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Funding data

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Abstract

Although the policy impacts on farms accumulate year by year, most farm decision models focus on short-term decisions, evaluating policies based on snapshots. Structural changes are gradually built; therefore, farm decision models should consider the sequences within the period under study. Multiyear data from the arable sector in Thessaly, Greece, have fed a newly developed farm-level recursive linear programming model mainly to simulate farm structural change dynamics. The proposed model incorporates new evidence on the strategic decision of arable crop farms regarding their remaining in the production system and farm expansion. Results reveal an evident gradual farmland concentration in relatively large farms, accompanied by a gradual expansion of the most profitable cropping activities, verifying the real-world survival strategy of farms.

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