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Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short- and long-term effects

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  • Pratap Kumar Jena,
  • Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh,
  • Ashok Mishra,
  • Souryabrata Mohapatra
Pratap Kumar Jena
a Department of Economics, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanjdeo University, Baripada, India
Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh
Department of Economics, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack, India,
Ashok Mishra
Morrison School of Agribusiness, Arizona State University, Mesa, United States
Souryabrata Mohapatra
University of Auckland
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17008

Published 2025-06-26

Keywords

  • Climate change,
  • Crop yield response,
  • Land use intensity,
  • Panel ARDL model,
  • Odisha,
  • India
    • ...More
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How to Cite

Jena, P. K., Paltasingh, K. R., Mishra, A., & Mohapatra, S. (2025). Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Odisha, India: Short- and long-term effects. Bio-Based and Applied Economics. https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17008

Copyright (c) 2023 Pratap Kumar Jena, Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Ashok Mishra, Souryabrata Mohapatra

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Weather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, farmland use and intensity in Odisha, India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a panel autoregressive distributive lag model, we assess long- and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative yield elasticity to rainfall deviation, ranging from -0.16 for wheat to -0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, elasticity is positive for some pulses (green gram, urad) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Rainfall deviation and maximum temperature adversely affect the rate and intensity of farmland use but enhance crop diversification in both the short and long term.

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