Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025)
Full Research Articles

Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Eastern India: Short- and long-term effects

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  • Pratap Kumar Jena,
  • Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh,
  • Souryabrata Mohapatra,
  • Ashok Mishra
Pratap Kumar Jena
Department of Economics, Maharaja Sriram Chandra Bhanjdeo University, Baripada, India
Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh
Department of Economics, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack, India
Souryabrata Mohapatra
School of Liberal Arts, Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur, Jheepasani, India
Ashok Mishra
Morrison School of Agribusiness, Arizona State University, Mesa, United States
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17008

Published 2025-06-26

Keywords

  • Climate change,
  • Crop yield response,
  • Land use intensity,
  • Panel ARDL model,
  • Odisha,
  • India
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

Jena, P. K., Paltasingh, K. R., Mohapatra, S., & Mishra, A. (2025). Impact of weather variability on crop yields and land use dynamics in Eastern India: Short- and long-term effects. Bio-Based and Applied Economics, 14(2), 31–49. https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17008

Copyright (c) 2025 Pratap Kumar Jena, Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Ashok Mishra, Souryabrata Mohapatra

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

Weather variability disrupts food grain production and agricultural sustainability. While existing literature highlights the stationary relationship between weather variables and agricultural outcomes, it often overlooks their bearing on land use changes. This study investigates the dynamic effects of weather variations on crop yields, land use and intensity in Odisha, Eastern India, using district-level data from 2001-18. By employing a ‘panel auto-regressive distributive lag (P-ARDL) model, we assess long- and short-term relationships between weather parameters and agricultural yields. Results reveal a negative marginal impact of rainfall deviation on yield, ranging from -0.16 for wheat to -0.48 for green gram in the long term. In the short term, however, the marginal impact is positive for some pulses (green gram, black gram) and oilseeds (groundnuts). Weather variability has adversely affected the intensity of land use but has induced crop diversification in both the short and long term.

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