Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025)
Full Research Articles

Rebuilding strategies for food self-sufficiency: Portugal’s past patterns and future ambitions

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  • Alexandre Macedo João,
  • Dulce Freire,
  • Humberto Rocha,
  • Joana Dias
Alexandre Macedo João
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Dulce Freire
Center for Interdisciplinary Studies, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Humberto Rocha
Centre for Business and Economics Research, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal
Joana Dias
Institute for Systems Engineering and Computers at Coimbra, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, Portugal
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17226

Published 2025-06-26

Keywords

  • Wheat Production,
  • Self-sufficiency,
  • Productivity,
  • Forecasting models,
  • Policy Making

How to Cite

Macedo João, A., Freire, D., Rocha, H., & Dias, J. (2025). Rebuilding strategies for food self-sufficiency: Portugal’s past patterns and future ambitions. Bio-Based and Applied Economics, 14(2), 51–65. https://doi.org/10.36253/bae-17226

Copyright (c) 2025 Alexandre Macedo João, Dulce Freire, Humberto Rocha, Joana Dias

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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Abstract

This study analyses Portugal’s wheat productive capacity, exploring the reasons behind its recent steady decline despite achieving self-sufficiency in the 20th century. Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), which proved to be highly effective in the development of forecasting models, the research provides valuable insights for countries facing similar challenges in defining production strategies. By employing this approach, decision-makers can improve resource allocation, ensure food security, and foster a resilient agricultural sector. The findings highlight the importance of understanding wheat production dynamics within the European Union and aligning national strategies with the Union’s goals and policies. The analysis indicates that achieving self-sufficiency is possible, supported by productivity improvements and increased cultivation areas. However, realizing significant production growth demands the adoption of sustainable strategies. This research contributes to shaping informed agricultural policies, enhancing decision-making processes, and promoting a more sustainable and efficient food production system to meet future challenges.

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