Vol. 80 (2022)
Original Articles - Urban, Land, Environmental Appraisal and Economics

Forecasting housing prices in Turkey by machine learning methods

Mehmet Kayakuş
Department of Management Information Systems, Akdeniz University
Bio
Mustafa Terzioğlu
Department of Accounting and Tax Department, Akdeniz University
Bio
Filiz Yetiz
Department of Banking and Finance, Akdeniz University
Bio
Published March 27, 2022
Keywords
  • Home sales price prediction,
  • Decision tree regression,
  • Artificial neural networks,
  • Support vector machines

Abstract

In this study, decision tree regression, artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM) methods are applied by using monthly data for the period 2013-2020 in the estimation of housing sales in Turkey. In the analysis, the volume of individual mortgage loans offered by banks, the average annual interest rate of mortgage loans from macroeconomic and market variables, the consumer price index (CPI), the BIST 100 index, the benchmark bond interest rate, gold prices and the values of the US dollar and Euro Turkish lira and the housing sales price per square meter in Turkey are used. As a result of the analysis carried out on the model created house sales prices in the Turkish housing market have been successfully estimated and in the light of these estimates, it is determined that banks can guide banks in the creation of various credit packages and appropriate loan targets to support the housing sector.

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