Just Accepted Manuscripts
Special Issue ”A new normal? The 2024 EP elections amidst old and new challenges”

Populism and affective polarization in the times of 'Giorgia': an assessment of the effect on European voting

PDF Just Accepted
Supplementary Materials - Just Accepted
  • Antonino Castaldo,
  • Danilo Di Mauro,
  • Vincenzo Memoli
Antonino Castaldo
University of Catania; Institute of Social Sciences, University of Lisbon (ICS-UL)
Danilo Di Mauro
University of Catania
Vincenzo Memoli
University of Catania
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17355

Published 2025-07-04

Keywords

  • European election,
  • Vote,
  • Populism,
  • Affective Polarization

How to Cite

Castaldo, A., Di Mauro, D., & Memoli, V. (2025). Populism and affective polarization in the times of ’Giorgia’: an assessment of the effect on European voting. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES). https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17355

Copyright (c) 2025 Vincenzo Memoli, Antonino Castaldo, Danilo Di Mauro

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Abstract

Despite the attention paid by comparative studies to the themes of populism and affective polarization (AP), the connections between these two concepts remain under-investigated. Both of them describe the conflict between ingroup (“us”) and outgroup (“them”) individuals. Nonetheless, although in the first case, the conflict pits the people against the elite, in the second case conflict occurs between party supporters and other parties (e.g., leaders, members). Even if conceptually and empirically separate, populism and AP are key explanatory factors of today’s politics and voting behavior. The increase in voter discontent, also fueled by a succession of economic, migratory, and pandemic crises, has indeed facilitated the rise of populists and affective sentiments. Do they work in parallel or show some points of contact? How do they interact in voting choices across different parties?

In this paper, we analyze the Italian context to shed light on the dynamics and effects that AP and support for populist parties produce on voting behavior. We present new data from a dedicated survey conducted in Italy during the 2024 European elections, and our analysis highlights the complex implications stemming from these two political phenomena: Whereas AP is positively associated with voter turnout and support for ideologically driven parties, certain forms of populism are negatively associated with turnout and influence party choice in distinct ways.

PDF Just Accepted
Supplementary Materials - Just Accepted

References

  1. Akkerman, A., Mudde, C., & Zaslove, A. (2014). How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters. Comparative Political Studies, 47(9), 1324-1353.
  2. Albertazzi, D., Giovannini, A., & Seddone, A. (2018). ‘No regionalism please, we are Leghisti!’The transformation of the Italian Lega Nord under the leadership of Matteo Salvini. Regional & Federal Studies, 28(5), 645-671.
  3. Angelucci, D., Trastulli, F., & Tuorto, D. (2024). Cronaca di una morte annunciata. La partecipazione elettorale in Italia, 2022. In A. Chiaramonte & L. De Sio (Eds.), Un polo solo: Le elezioni politiche del 2022 (pp. 107-138). Il Mulino.
  4. Avritzer, L. (2002). Democracy and the Public Space in Latin America. Princeton University Press.
  5. Baldini, G., Tronconi, F., & Angelucci, D. (2022). Yet another populist party? Understanding the rise of Brothers of Italy. South European Society and Politics, 27(3), 385-405.
  6. Bettarelli, L., Reiljan, A., & Van Haute, E. (2023). A regional perspective to the study of affective polarization. European Journal of Political Research, 62(2), 645-659.
  7. Castaldo, A. (2018). Populism and Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 18(4), 467-487.
  8. Castaldo, A., & Memoli, V. (2024). Political Support and Democratic Backsliding Trends. The Strange Case of Central and Eastern European Countries. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 32(1), 138-156.
  9. Castaldo, A., & Verzichelli, L. (2020). Technocratic Populism in Italy after Berlusconi. The trendsetter and his disciples, Politics and Governance, 8(4), 485-495.
  10. Castanho Silva, B., Jungkunz, S., Helbling, M., & Littvay, L. (2020). An Empirical Comparison of Seven Populist Attitudes Scales. Political Research Quarterly, 73(2), 409-424.
  11. Castanho Silva, B., Neuner, F. G., & Wratil, C. (2023). Populism and candidate support in the US: the effects of “thin” and “host” ideology. Journal of Experimental Political Science, 10(3), 438-447.
  12. Chiaramonte, A., Emanuele, V., Maggini, N., & Paparo, A. (2022). Radical-right surge in a deinstitutionalised party system: the 2022 Italian general election. South European Society and Politics, 27(3), 329-357.
  13. Conti, N., Di Mauro, D., & Memoli, V. (2022). Euroscepticism and populism in Italy among party elites and the public. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 85(1), 25-43.
  14. Davis, B., Goodliffe, J., & Hawkins, K. (2025). The two-way effects of populism on affective polarization. Comparative Political Studies, 58(1), 122-154.
  15. De Sio, L. (2008). Are less-involved voters the key to win elections? Comparative Political Studies, 41(2), 217-241.
  16. Ellenbroek, V., Meijers, M. J., & Krouwel, A. (2023). Populist but pluralist? Populist attitudes and preferences for political pluralism in parliament and government. Parliamentary Affairs, 76(1), 125-145.
  17. Ferreira da Silva, F., & Garzia, D. (2024). Affective Polarization towards Parties and Leaders, and Electoral Participation in 13 Parliamentary Democracies, 1980–2019. Public Opinion Quarterly, 88(4), 1234-1248.
  18. Garzia, D., & Ferreira da Silva, F. (2022). The electoral consequences of affective polarization? Negative voting in the 2020 US presidential election. American Politics Research, 50(3), 303-311.
  19. Giovannini, A., Valbruzzi, M., & Vampa, D. (2023). The 2022 Italian general election: a political shock or the new normal?. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 86(1), 3-11.
  20. Gunther, R., & Diamond, L. (2003). Species of political parties: A new typology. Party politics, 9(2), 167-199.
  21. Hahm, H., Hilpert, D., & König, T. (2023). Divided by Europe: affective polarisation in the context of European elections. West European Politics, 46(4), 705-731.
  22. Harteveld, E. (2021). Fragmented foes: affective polarization in the multiparty context of the Netherlands. Electoral Studies, 71, 102-332.
  23. Harteveld, E., Mendoza, P., & Rooduijn, M. (2022). Affective polarization and the populist radical right: creating the hating?. Government and Opposition, 57(4), 703-727.
  24. Harteveld, E., & Wagner, M. (2023). Does Affective Polarisation Increase Turnout? Evidence from Germany, The Netherlands and Spain. West European Politics, 46(4), 732-759.
  25. Hawkins, K. A., Carlin, R. E., Littvay, L., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (Eds.). (2019). The Ideational Approach to Populism: Concept, Theory, and Analysis. Routledge.
  26. Huddy, L., Mason, L., & Aarøe, L. (2015). Expressive Partisanship: Campaign Involvement, Political Emotion, and Partisan Identity. American Political Science Review, 109(1), 1-17.
  27. Immerzeel, T., & Pickup, M. (2015). Populist Radical Right Parties Mobilizing ‘the People’? The Role of Populist Radical Right Success in Voter Turnout. Electoral Studies, 40, 347-360.
  28. Inglehart, R., & Norris, P. (2000). The Developmental Theory of the Gender Gap: Women's and Men's Voting Behavior in Global Perspective. International Political Science Review, 21(4), 441-463.
  29. Iyengar, S., Sood, G., & Lelkes, Y. (2012). Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(3), 405-431.
  30. Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M., Malhotra, N., & Westwood, S. J. (2019). The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(1), 129-146.
  31. Kriesi, H., & Pappas, T. S. (Eds.). (2015). European Populism in the Shadow of the Great Recession. ECPR Press.
  32. Laclau, E. (2005). On Populist Reason. Verso.
  33. Leininger, A., & Meijers, M. J. (2021). Do Populist Parties Increase Voter Turnout? Evidence from over 40 Years of Electoral History in 31 European Democracies. Political Studies, 69(3), 665-685.
  34. McCoy, J., Tahmina, R., & Murat, S. (2018). Polarization and the global crisis of democracy: Common patterns, dynamics, and pernicious consequences for democratic polities. American Behavioral Scientist, 62(1), 16-42.
  35. Milner, H. V. (2021). Voting for populism in Europe: Globalization, technological change, and the extreme right. Comparative Political Studies, 54(13), 2286-2320.
  36. Mouffe, C. (2018). For a Left Populism. Verso.
  37. Mudde, C. (2004) The Populist Zeitgeist. Government and Opposition, 39(4), 541-563.
  38. Mudde, C. (2019). The 2019 EU elections: Moving the center. Journal of Democracy, 30(4), 20-34.
  39. Mudde, C., & Rovira Kaltwasser, C. (Eds.). (2012). Populism in Europe and the Americas: Threat or Corrective for Democracy? Cambridge University Press.
  40. Nemčok, M., Bosancianu, C. M., Leshchenko, O., & Kluknavská, A. (2023). Softening the corrective effect of populism: populist parties’ impact on political interest. West European Politics, 46(4), 760-787.
  41. Neuner, F. G., & Wratil, C. (2022). The Populist Marketplace: Unpacking the Role of “Thin” and “Thick” Ideology. Political Behavior, 44(2), 551-574.
  42. Noury, A., & Roland, G. (2020). Identity politics and populism in Europe. Annual Review of Political Science, 23(1), 421-439.
  43. Pasquino, G., & Valbruzzi, M. (2023). The 2022 general Italian elections. The long-awaited victory of the right. Journal of Modern Italian Studies, 28(1), 1-21.
  44. Pierce, D. R., & Lau, R. R. (2019). Polarization and correct voting in U.S. presidential elections. Electoral Studies, 60, 102048.
  45. Pirro, A. L. P. (2018). The polyvalent populism of the 5 Star Movement. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 26(4), 443-445
  46. Rahat, G. (2024). Party types in the age of personalized politics. Perspectives on Politics, 22(1), 213-228.
  47. Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections: a conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), 3-44.
  48. Reiljan, A., Garzia, D., Ferreira da Silva, F., & Trechsel, A. H. (2024). Patterns of affective polarization toward parties and leaders across the democratic world. American Political Science Review, 118(2), 654-670.
  49. Rodón, T. (2022). Affective and territorial polarisation: The impact on vote choice in Spain. South European Society and Politics, 27(1), 147-169.
  50. Rooduijn, M. (2013). The Nucleus of Populism: In Search of the Lowest Common Denominator. Government and Opposition, 49(4), 572-598.
  51. Rooduijn, M. (2014). Vox populismus: A populist radical right attitude among the public? Nations and Nationalism, 20(1), 80-92.
  52. Rooduijn, M., Pirro, A. L. P., Halikiopoulou, D., Froio, C., van Kessel, S., de Lange, S. L., Mudde, C., & Taggart, P. (2024). The PopuList: A Database of Populist, Far-Left, and Far-Right Parties Using Expert-Informed Qualitative Comparative Classification (EiQCC). British Journal of Political Science, 54(3), 969-978.
  53. Rummens, S. (2017). Populism as a Threat to Liberal Democracy. In C. Rovira Kaltwasser, P. A. Taggart, P. O. Espejo, & P. Ostiguy (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Populism (pp. 554-570). Oxford University Press.
  54. Schumacher, G., & Rooduijn, M. (2013). Sympathy for the ‘devil’? Voting for populists in the 2006 and 2010 Dutch general elections. Electoral Studies, 32(1), 124-133.
  55. Spittler, M. (2018). Are Right-Wing Populist Parties a Threat to Democracy? In S. Kneip & W. Merkel (Eds.), Democracy and Crisis (pp. 97-121). Springer.
  56. Stanley, B. (2011). Populism, nationalism or national populism? An analysis of Slovak voting behavior at the 2010 parliamentary election. Communist and Post-communist Studies, 44(4), 257-270.
  57. Tronconi, F. (2022). Il movimento cinque stelle in cerca di futuro. Il Mulino, LXXI(2), 65-75.
  58. Vampa, D. (2017). Matteo Salvini's Northern League in 2016: Between Stasis and New Opportunities. Italian politics, 32(1), 32-50.
  59. Vassallo, S., & Vignati, R. (2023). Fratelli di Giorgia. Il Mulino
  60. Verbeek, B., & Zaslove, A. (2016). Italy: A case of mutating populism? Democratization, 23(2), 304-323.
  61. Wagner, M. (2021). Affective Polarization in Multiparty Systems. Electoral Studies, 69, 102199.
  62. Ward, D. G., & Tavits, M. (2019). How Partisan Affect Shapes Citizens’ Perception of the Political World. Electoral Studies, 60(4), 102045.