Is there an Animal Food Kuznets Curve, and does it matter?

Abstract

Proteins from animal sources, including meat, and plant-based foods are essential for a healthy human diet. However, animal-based proteins have significantly higher environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and water usage) and health risks (e.g., obesity, type 2 diabetes, kidney stones and cardiovascular diseases) compared to plant-based proteins. The consumption patterns of these proteins are strongly influenced by income levels. This study introduces the concept of an Animal Food Kuznets Curve by systematically analyzing the relationship between income and animal-based protein consumption. Utilizing a novel panel dataset spanning 28 years and covering 79 countries, we uncover an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and the consumption of animal-based and meat proteins. Our findings indicate that the turning points occur around 43,000-45,000 US$, corresponding to the 90th and 95th percentiles of the per capita income distribution in the sample. At these income levels, protein consumption is estimated at approximately 25 g/day for meat and 52 g/day for animal-based proteins, as compared to recommended total protein intake of 45-56 g/day. These insights highlight the critical need for targeted policy interventions, such as taxes, nudges, and informational campaigns to promote sustainable dietary choices across all income levels. Our study provides empirical evidence for the importance of integrating economic and environmental policies to enhance global food sustainability.