Stima dei danni economici indotti dai cambiamenti climatici sul settore zootecnico e agricolo toscano: previsioni per il periodo 2007-2099

Abstract

The climate change verified at global and local scale involves several environmental and socio-economic impacts. Thus, the definition of techniques able to quantify economic damage results to be very important in order to apply proper form of management of vulnerable systems. Following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, risk has been defined as a function of hazard and vulnerability/resilience lines of evidence. Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the assessment of economic damage. The results of the hazard and vulnerability assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on spatial analysis procedure applied to raster maps. Assessment method has been implemented with the maps, in order to quantify in monetary terms the costs to be supported. The framework was then tested on Tuscany agricultural sector.