V. 88 N. 1 (2025): A new normal? The 2024 EP elections amidst old and new challenges
Articles

EU issue voting in the 2024 European elections in Italy: is the sleeping giant awake?

PDF (English)
Supplementary Materials (English)
  • Luca Carrieri,
  • Nicolò Conti,
  • Matteo Giardiello
Luca Carrieri
Unitelma Sapienza University of Rome
Nicolò Conti
Unitelma Sapienza University of Rome
Matteo Giardiello
Unitelma Sapienza University of Rome
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17384

Pubblicato 2025-10-07

Parole chiave

  • 2024 European Elections,
  • Italy,
  • EU Issue Voting,
  • Voters,
  • Political Parties

Come citare

Carrieri, L., Conti, N., & Giardiello, M. (2025). EU issue voting in the 2024 European elections in Italy: is the sleeping giant awake? . Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 88(1), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17384

Copyright (c) 2025 Luca Carrieri, Nicolò Conti, Matteo Giardiello

Creative Commons License

TQuesto lavoro è fornito con la licenza Creative Commons Attribuzione 4.0 Internazionale.

Abstract

The recent period has been characterized by intense politicization of the EU, particularly amid multiple crises, with challenges to the EU’s legitimacy met by flourishing pro‑EU resilience. In this context, Italy stands out as a particularly informative case, where anti‑EU sentiment and political entrepreneurship have reached unprecedented levels and may have contributed to the electoral success of certain parties. Yet questions remain about the impact of EU issue voting in this country. This article addresses the issue through an analysis of the 2024 European Parliament elections. Using a combination of original data from a mass survey conducted on the occasion of these elections and of expert survey data from CHES, we examine the positional distance between voters and parties on the EU and we relate it to voting. We show that EU issue voting played a significant impact on the vote choice of Italians.

PDF (English)
Supplementary Materials (English)

Riferimenti bibliografici

  1. Angelucci, D., & Carrieri, L. (2023). Not for ideology but opportunity? The foundations of EU issue-voting in Eurosceptic Italy. Contemporary Italian Politics, 15(1), 5–23. https://doi.org/10.1080/23248823.2022.2052485
  2. Bartolini, S. (2005). Restructuring Europe. Oxford University Press.
  3. Beaudonnet, L., & Gomez, R. (2024). The imbalanced effect of politicization: How EU politicization favours Eurosceptic parties. European Union Politics, 25(2), 354–375. https://doi.org/10.1177/14651165231220615
  4. Bélanger, É., & Meguid, B. M. (2008). Issue salience, issue ownership, and issue-based vote choice. Electoral Studies, 27(3), 477–491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.01.001
  5. Braun, D. (2021). The Europeanness of the 2019 EP elections and the mobilizing power of European issues. Politics, 41(4), 451–466. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395721992930
  6. Braun, D., Hutter, S., & Kerscher, A. (2016). What type of Europe? The salience of polity and policy issues in European Parliament elections. European Union Politics, 17(4), 570–592. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116516660387
  7. Budge, I., & Farlie, D. (1983). Explaining and predicting elections: Issue effects and party strategies in twenty-three democracies. George Allen and Unwin.
  8. Caiani, M., & Graziano, P. R. (2016). Varieties of populism: Insights from the Italian case. Italian Political Science Review, 46(2), 243–267. https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2016.6
  9. Capati, A., Improta, M., & Trastulli, F. (2024). COVID-19 and party competition over the EU: Italy in early pandemic times. European Politics and Society, 25(1), 93–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2022.2095170
  10. Carrieri, L., & Conti, N. (2022). L’Europa contesa. Partiti ed elettori nei paesi dell’UE. McGraw-Hill Education.
  11. Carrieri, L., Conti, N., & Loveless, M. (2025). EU issue voting in European member states: The return of the pro-EU stance and pro-EU voter. West European Politics 48(3), 479–506. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2024.2370121
  12. Carrieri, L., & Angelucci, D. (2022). The valence side of the EU: EU issue voting in the aftermath of the Euro crisis. Swiss Political Science Review, 28(1), 41–60. https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12492]
  13. Clark, N., & Rohrschneider, R. (2009). Second-order elections versus first-order thinking: How voters perceive the representation process in a multilayered system of governance. European Integration, 31(5), 613–632. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036330903145906
  14. Conti, N., Di Mauro, D., & Memoli, V. (2022). Think European, act local: Do Italians think of Europe when they vote in national elections? European Politics and Society, 23(5), 617–638. https://doi.org/10.1080/23745118.2021.1917036
  15. Conti, N., & De Giorgi, E. (2011). L'Euroscetticismo a parole: Lega Nord e Rifondazione comunista tra retorica e comportamento istituzionale. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 41(2), 265–290. https://doi.org/10.1426/34968
  16. Conti, N., Di Mauro, D., & Memoli, V. (2022). Euroscepticism and populism in Italy among party elites and the public. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 85(1), 47–62. https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-11552
  17. Conti, N., Marangoni, F., & Verzichelli, L. (2024). Euroscepticism in Italy from the onset of the crisis: Tired of Europe? South European Society and Politics, 29(4), 431–456. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1757885
  18. De Sio, L., & Cataldi, M. (2024, June 11). I flussi di voto: Il ruolo dell’astensione, e il ritorno del “muro di Arcore.” CISE Telescope. https://cise.luiss.it/2024/06/11/i-flussi-di-voto-il-ruolo-dellastensione-e-il-ritorno-del-muro-di-arcore/
  19. De Sio, L., Franklin, M. N., & Weber, T. (2016). The risks and opportunities of Europe: How issue yield explains (non-)reactions to the financial crisis. Electoral Studies, 44, 483–491. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.02.018
  20. De Vries, C. E. (2007). Sleeping giant: Fact or fairy tale? How European integration affects national elections. European Union Politics, 8(3), 363–385. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116507079536
  21. De Vries, C. E. (2010). EU issue voting: Asset or liability? How European integration affects parties’ electoral fortunes. European Union Politics, 11(1), 89–117. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116509353456
  22. De Vries, C. E., & Hobolt, S. B. (2012). When dimensions collide: The electoral success of issue entrepreneurs. European Union Politics, 13(2), 246–268. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116511434788
  23. Donà, A. (2022). The rise of the radical right in Italy: The case of Fratelli d’Italia. Journal of Modern Italian Studies, 27(5), 775–794. https://doi.org/10.1080/1354571X.2022.2113216
  24. Garzia, D. (2023). The Italian parliamentary election of 2022: The populist radical right takes charge. West European Politics, 46(5), 1038–1048. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2200225
  25. Giannetti, D., Pedrazzani, A., & Pinto, L. (2017). Party system change in Italy: Politicising the EU and the rise of eccentric parties. South European Society and Politics, 22(1), 21–42. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2016.1174470
  26. Hix, S., & Marsh, M. (2007). Punishment or protest? Understanding European Parliament elections. The Journal of Politics, 69(2), 495–510. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00546.x
  27. Hobolt, S. B., & De Vries, C. E. (2016). Turning against the union? The impact of the crisis on the Eurosceptic vote in the 2014 European Parliament elections. Electoral Studies, 44, 504–514. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.006
  28. Hobolt, S. B., Spoon, J. J., & Tilley, J. (2009). A vote against Europe? Explaining defection at the 1999 and 2004 European Parliament elections. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 93–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000460
  29. Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2009). A postfunctionalist theory of European integration: From permissive consensus to constraining dissensus. British Journal of Political Science, 39(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000409
  30. Hooghe, L., & Marks, G. (2018). Cleavage theory meets Europe’s crises: Lipset, Rokkan, and the transnational cleavage. Journal of European Public Policy, 25(1), 109–135. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1310279
  31. Hutter, S., & Grande, E. (2014). Politicizing Europe in the national electoral arena: A comparative analysis of five West European countries, 1970–2010. Journal of Common Market Studies, 52(5), 1002–1018. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12133
  32. Hutter, S., & Kriesi, H. (2019). Politicizing Europe in times of crisis. Journal of European Public Policy, 26(7), 996–1017. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1619801
  33. Improta, M., & Mannoni, E. (2025). Keeping the left alive: Exploring voter support for the Greens and Left Alliance (AVS) in the 2024 European elections. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies. https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-17432
  34. Jolly, S., Bakker, R., Hooghe, L., Marks, G., Polk, J., Rovny, J., Steenbergen, M., & Vachudova, M. A. (2022). Chapel Hill Expert Survey trend file, 1999–2019. Electoral Studies, 75, 102420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2021.102420
  35. Mazzoleni, G., & Bracciale, R. (2018). Socially mediated populism: The communicative strategies of political leaders on Facebook. Palgrave Communications, 4(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-018-0104-x
  36. Pareschi, A., Giglioli, M. F. N., & Baldini, G. (2023). Caught between sovereignty and solidarity? A multidimensional revisitation of EU mass–elite congruence. Italian Political Science Review, 53(1), 3–23. https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2022.10
  37. Passarelli, G., & Tuorto, D. (2022). From the Lega Nord to Salvini’s League: Changing everything to change nothing? Journal of Modern Italian Studies, 27(3), 400–415. https://doi.org/10.1080/1354571X.2022.2069252
  38. Marzi, P., & Pareschi, A. (2025). Italy, the EU-9, and the double-sided gap: A longitudinal analysis of mass-elite congruence on European integration (1979–2016). Italian Political Science Review, 55(2), 121–137. https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2025.9
  39. Petrocik, J. R. (1996). Issue ownership in presidential elections, with a 1980 case study. American Journal of Political Science, 40(3), 825–850. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111797
  40. Pirro, A. L., & Van Kessel, S. (2018). Populist Eurosceptic trajectories in Italy and the Netherlands during the European crises. Politics, 38(3), 327–343. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263395718769511
  41. Reif, K., & Schmitt, H. (1980). Nine second-order national elections: A conceptual framework for the analysis of European election results. European Journal of Political Research, 8(1), 3–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-6765.1980.tb00737.x
  42. Schmitt, H. (2008). The nature of European issues: Conceptual clarifications and some empirical evidence. In S. Ganghof, C. Hönnige, & C. Stecker (Eds.), Parlamente, Agendasetzung und Vetospieler (pp. 137–146). VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
  43. Serricchio, F. (2014). The 2009 European election in Italy: National or European? Perspectives on European Politics and Society, 15(2), 198–215. https://doi.org/10.1080/15705854.2014.885766
  44. Serricchio, F. (2018). Gli italiani, l'Europa e la crisi. Giappichelli.
  45. Taggart, P., & Szczerbiak, A. (2013). Coming in from the cold? Euroscepticism, government participation and party positions on Europe. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(1), 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5965.2012.02298.x
  46. Teperoglou, E., & Belchior, A. M. (2024). Is ‘old southern Europe’ still Eurosceptic? Determinants of mass attitudes before, during and after the Eurozone crisis. South European Society & Politics, 29(4), 405-430. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1805878
  47. Torcal, M., & Rodon, T. (2021). Zooming in on the ‘Europeanisation’ of national politics: A comparative analysis of six EU countries. Italian Journal of Electoral Studies, 84(1), 3–29. https://doi.org/10.36253/qoe-9585
  48. YouTrend. (2024, June 10). Cosa è successo alle elezioni europee? YouTrend. https://www.youtrend.it/2024/06/10/cosa-e-successo-alle-elezioni-europee-tutte-le-analisi-di-youtrend/
  49. Zeitlin, J., Nicoli, F., & Laffan, B. (2019). Introduction: The European Union beyond the polycrisis? Integration and politicization in an age of shifting cleavages. Journal of European Public Policy, 26(7), 963–976. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1619803