Original Research Article
Fractional responses with spatial dependence of Portuguese wineries' domestic market sales to an exogenous shock (Covid-19)
João Rebelo- Alexandre Guedes
- Sofia Gouveia
Published 2023-09-27
Keywords
- Wine; Fractional response model; Spatial dependence; Exogenous shock; Firm performance
How to Cite
Faria, S., Rebelo, J., Guedes, A., & Gouveia, S. (2023). Fractional responses with spatial dependence of Portuguese wineries’ domestic market sales to an exogenous shock (Covid-19). Wine Economics and Policy. https://doi.org/10.36253/wep-13917
Copyright (c) 2023 Samuel Faria, João Rebelo, Alexandre Guedes, Sofia Gouveia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Abstract
This paper uses firm-level data to investigate the resilience of the Portuguese wine sector’s domestic market in the aftermath of the exogenous shock arising from Covid-19. To address this research goal, based on a resource-based view of the firm framework, this article applies a fractional response model including spatial dependence of wineries. Comparing 2020 to 2019, the results allow us to confirm that the impact of the pandemic crisis depends on firm structure and behavior reflected by variables such as firm size, age, export intensity, market channel, as well as geographic location. The results show the need for the development of innovative regional clusters, that go beyond joint promotion, involving the development of cooperative practices between neighboring firms. Therefore, managers and policy makers should consider heterogeneity of wineries as well as the promotion of robust local clusters.
References
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[38] J. Faria, Samuel; Lourenço-Gomes, Lina; Gouveia, Sofia; Rebelo, “Economic performance of the Portuguese wine industry: a microeconometric analysis,” Journal of Wine Research, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 283–300, 2020, doi: 10.1080/09571264.2020.1855578.
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[41] D. A. Singh, “Export performance of emerging market firms,” International Business Review, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 321–330, 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2009.03.002.
[42] N. Bashiri Behmiri, J. F. Rebelo, S. Gouveia, and P. António, “Firm characteristics and export performance in Portuguese wine firms,” International Journal of Wine Business Research, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 419–440, Aug. 2019, doi: 10.1108/IJWBR-07-2018-0032.
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[44] S. T. Certo, J. R. Busenbark, H. S. Woo, and M. Semadeni, “Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research,” Strategic Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 13, pp. 2639–2657, Dec. 2016, doi: 10.1002/smj.2475.
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[49] S. Canavati, M. Bauman, and D. Wilson, “The Wine Industry & the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Wine Business Journal, vol. 4, no. 2, Dec. 2020, doi: 10.26813/001c.22054.
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[2] J. Rebelo, R. Compés, S. Faria, T. Gonçalves, V. Pinilla, and K. Simón-Elorz, “Covid-19 lockdown and wine consumption frequency in Portugal and Spain,” Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, vol. 19, no. 2, p. e0105R, Jun. 2021, doi: 10.5424/sjar/2021192r-17697.
[3] B. Niklas et al., “Wine industry perceptions and reactions to the COVID‐19 crisis in the Old and New Worlds: Do business models make a difference?,” Agribusiness, May 2022, doi: 10.1002/agr.21748.
[4] OIV, “State of the world vitivinivultural sector in 2020,” https://www.oiv.int/public/medias/7909/oiv-state-of-the-world-vitivinicultural-sector-in-2020.pdf, Apr. 2021.
[5] B. Marco-Lajara, P. Seva-Larrosa, L. Ruiz-Fernández, and J. Martínez-Falcó, “The Effect of COVID-19 on the Spanish Wine Industry,” 2021, pp. 211–232. doi: 10.4018/978-1-7998-8314-2.ch012.
[6] T. Davids, N. Vink, and K. Cloete, “Covid-19 and the South African wine industry,” Agrekon, vol. 61, no. 1, pp. 42–51, 2022, doi: 10.1080/03031853.2021.1975550.
[7] B. Niklas, A. Guedes, R. M. Back, J. Rebelo, and V. F. Laurie, “How resilient are wine tourism destinations to health-related security threats? A winery perspective,” Journal of Destination Marketing and Management, vol. 24, Jun. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.jdmm.2022.100707.
[8] Prowein, “The latest ProWein Business Report 2020 is now available: Covid-19 is the biggest challenge for the global wine industry,” https://www.prowein.com/en/For_Press/Press_material/Press_Releases/The_latest_ProWein_Business_Report_2020_is_now_available_Covid-19_is_the_biggest_challenge_for_the_global_wine_industry, Dec. 2020.
[9] A. Guedes, B. Niklas, R. M. Back, and J. Rebelo, “Implications of an exogenous shock (COVID-19) on wine tourism business: A Portuguese winery perspective,” Tourism and Hospitality Research, 2022, doi: 10.1177/14673584221085214.
[10] S. Faria, S. Gouveia, A. Guedes, and J. Rebelo, “Transient and persistent efficiency and spatial spillovers: Evidence from the portuguese wine industry,” Economies, vol. 9, no. 3, Sep. 2021, doi: 10.3390/economies9030116.
[11] J. Canello and F. Vidoli, “Investigating space-time patterns of regional industrial resilience through a micro-level approach: An application to the Italian wine industry,” Journal of Regional Science, vol. 60, no. 4, pp. 653–676, Sep. 2020, doi: 10.1111/jors.12480.
[12] B.-H. Kim, H. Kim, and B.-S. Lee, “Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries,” International Review of Economics & Finance, vol. 39, pp. 192–210, Sep. 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2015.04.005.
[13] R. Zeitun and M. Goaied, “The nexus between debt structure, firm performance, and the financial crisis: non-linear panel data evidence from Japan,” Applied Economics, vol. 54, no. 40, pp. 4681–4699, Aug. 2022, doi: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2033680.
[14] R. Sellers-Rubio, “Evaluating the economic performance of Spanish wineries,” International Journal of Wine Business Research, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 73–84, 2010, doi: 10.1108/17511061011035215.
[15] R. Sellers and V. Alampi-Sottini, “The influence of size on winery performance: Evidence from Italy,” Wine Economics and Policy, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 33–41, 2016, doi: 10.1016/j.wep.2016.03.001.
[16] J. Rebelo, S. Gouveia, L. Lourenço-Gomes, and A. A. Marta-Costa, “Wine Firm’s Size and Economic Performance: Evidence from Traditional Portuguese Wine Regions,” Grapes and Wines - Advances in Production, Processing, Analysis and Valorization, 2018, doi: 10.5772/intechopen.71320.
[17] S. Faria, J. Rebelo, and S. Gouveia, “Firms’ export performance: A fractional econometric approach,” Journal of Business Economics and Management, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 521–542, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.3846/jbem.2020.11934.
[18] H. Shen, M. Fu, H. Pan, Z. Yu, and Y. Chen, “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Firm Performance,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, vol. 56, no. 10, pp. 2213–2230, Aug. 2020, doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785863.
[19] M. Fu and H. Shen, “COVID-19 and Corporate Performance in the Energy Industry,” Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 1, no. 1, May 2020, doi: 10.46557/001c.12967.
[20] S. Hu and Y. Zhang, “COVID-19 pandemic and firm performance: Cross-country evidence,” International Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 74, pp. 365–372, Jul. 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.03.016.
[21] IVV, “Vendas no Mercado Nacional,” https://www.ivv.gov.pt/np4/606/, Dec. 2020.
[22] M. S. Loudermilk, “Estimation of fractional dependent variables in dynamic panel data models with an application to firm dividend policy,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 25, no. 4, pp. 462–472, Oct. 2007, doi: 10.1198/073500107000000098.
[23] L. Santos, “Essays in Spatial Econometrics,”. Tese de doutoramento. Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, 2020.
[24] Y. Wang, W. Cao, Z. Zhou, and L. Ning, “Does external technology acquisition determine export performance? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms,” International Business Review, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 1079–1091, Dec. 2013, doi: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2013.02.009.
[25] J. López-Rodríguez, D. C. Dopico, A. María, and D. Castillo Puente, “Export performance in Spanish wineries: the role of human capital and quality management system,” 2018.
[26] L. E. Papke and J. M. Wooldridge, “Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) plan participation rates,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 11, no. 6, pp. 619–632, Nov. 1996, doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<619::AID-JAE418>3.0.CO;2-1.
[27] J. J. Heckman, “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error,” Econometrica, vol. 47, no. 1, p. 153, 1979, doi: 10.2307/1912352.
[28] E. A. Ramalho, J. J. S. Ramalho, and J. M. R. Murteira, “Alternative estimating and testing empirical strategies for fractional regression models,” Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 19–68, Feb. 2011, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00602.x.
[29] M. Kapoor, H. H. Kelejian, and I. R. Prucha, “Panel data models with spatially correlated error components,” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 140, no. 1, pp. 97–130, 2007, doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2006.09.004.
[30] A. M. Astuti, Setiawan, I. Zain, and J. D. T. Purnomo, “A Review of Panel Data on Spatial Econometrics Models,” Journal of Physics: Conference Series, vol. 1490, no. 1, 2020, doi: 10.1088/1742-6596/1490/1/012032.
[31] B. H. Baltagi, P. Egger, and M. Pfaffermayr, “A Generalized Spatial Panel Data Model with Random Effects,” Econometric Reviews, vol. 32, no. 5–6, pp. 650–685, 2013, doi: 10.1080/07474938.2012.742342.
[32] V. O. Pede, F. J. Areal, A. Singbo, J. McKinley, and K. Kajisa, “Spatial dependency and technical efficiency: an application of a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to irrigated and rainfed rice farmers in Bohol, Philippines,” Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 301–312, 2018, doi: 10.1111/agec.12417.
[33] X. Xu and L. Lee, “A spatial autoregressive model with a nonlinear transformation of the dependent variable,” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 186, no. 1, pp. 1–18, May 2015, doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.12.005.
[34] S. Faria, S. Gouveia, and J. Rebelo, “Transient and persistent efficiency: An application to Portuguese wineries,” Economics and Business Letters, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 16–23, Mar. 2022, doi: 10.17811/ebl.11.1.2022.16-23.
[35] S. Faria, J. Rebelo, and S. Gouveia, “Firms’ export performance: A fractional econometric approach,” Journal of Business Economics and Management, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 521–542, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.3846/jbem.2020.11934.
[36] E. Neves, A. Dias, M. Ferreira, and C. Henriques, “Determinants of wine firms’ performance: the Iberian case using panel data,” International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 325–338, Jun. 2022, doi: 10.1108/IJAIM-10-2021-0203.
[37] A. Capasso, C. Gallucci, and M. Rossi, “Standing the test of time. Does firm performance improve with age? An analysis of the wine industry,” Business History, vol. 57, no. 7, pp. 1037–1053, Oct. 2015, doi: 10.1080/00076791.2014.993614.
[38] J. Faria, Samuel; Lourenço-Gomes, Lina; Gouveia, Sofia; Rebelo, “Economic performance of the Portuguese wine industry: a microeconometric analysis,” Journal of Wine Research, vol. 31, no. 4, pp. 283–300, 2020, doi: 10.1080/09571264.2020.1855578.
[39] A. Coad, “Firm age: a survey,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 13–43, 2018, doi: 10.1007/s00191-016-0486-0.
[40] S. H. Lee, P. W. Beamish, H. U. Lee, and J. H. Park, “Strategic choice during economic crisis: Domestic market position, organizational capabilities and export flexibility,” Journal of World Business, vol. 44, no. 1, pp. 1–15, 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.jwb.2008.03.015.
[41] D. A. Singh, “Export performance of emerging market firms,” International Business Review, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 321–330, 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.ibusrev.2009.03.002.
[42] N. Bashiri Behmiri, J. F. Rebelo, S. Gouveia, and P. António, “Firm characteristics and export performance in Portuguese wine firms,” International Journal of Wine Business Research, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 419–440, Aug. 2019, doi: 10.1108/IJWBR-07-2018-0032.
[43] Mc. Martínez-Victoria, M. Maté-Sánchez-Val, and A. O. Lansink, “Spatial dynamic analysis of productivity growth of agri-food companies,” Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 315–327, 2019, doi: 10.1111/agec.12486.
[44] S. T. Certo, J. R. Busenbark, H. S. Woo, and M. Semadeni, “Sample selection bias and Heckman models in strategic management research,” Strategic Management Journal, vol. 37, no. 13, pp. 2639–2657, Dec. 2016, doi: 10.1002/smj.2475.
[45] E. A. Ramalho, J. J. S. Ramalho, and J. M. R. Murteira, “Alternative estimating and testing empirical strategies for fractional regression models,” Journal of Economic Surveys, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 19–68, Feb. 2011, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00602.x.
[46] V. Ghosal and P. Loungani, “The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses,” SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.236097.
[47] H. Aldamen, K. Duncan, S. Kelly, and R. McNamara, “Corporate governance and family firm performance during the Global Financial Crisis,” Accounting and Finance, vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 1673–1701, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.1111/acfi.12508.
[48] M. Dubois et al., “Did wine consumption change during the Covid-19 lockdown in France, Italy, Spain, and Portugal?,” Journal of Wine Economics, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 131–168, May 2021, doi: 10.1017/jwe.2021.19.
[49] S. Canavati, M. Bauman, and D. Wilson, “The Wine Industry & the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Wine Business Journal, vol. 4, no. 2, Dec. 2020, doi: 10.26813/001c.22054.
[50] A. Bressan, A. Duarte Alonso, O. T. K. Vu, L. T. H. Do, and W. Martens, “The role of tradition for food and wine producing firms in times of an unprecedented crisis,” British Food Journal, vol. 124, no. 4, pp. 1170–1186, Feb. 2022, doi: 10.1108/BFJ-04-2021-0454.