La valutazione del rischio nell’analisi finanziaria di Ellwood per la stima indiretta di immobili urbani

Abstract

To estimate the value of a real estate through the capitalization of the incomes, the determination of the suitable cap rate is generally make with the analogical process. This is usually inferred by a price-earnings ratio of similar investments. The analogy concerns the risk and the duration of the investment. There is a wide range of methods to rationalize the indirect valuation of the cap rate. However, in all these methods the appraisal holds uncertainty. In this paper a methodology which removes uncertainty in the valuation of the cap rate is proposed. In this method the uncertainty is transformed in risk. The aim is achieved by the combination of the formal logic of the Ellwood’s model and the Real Options Analysis. Therefore, the algorithm defined has been implemented in a software for the real estate appraisal, described by an immediate and simply user interface.