VSI_5 Towards the US 2024 Presidential Election: Electoral History and Evidence
Issue Description
Ahead of the pivotal head-to-head between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for the 2024 US presidential election, the Italian Journal of Electoral Studies (IJES) is delighted to launch a Virtual Special Issue collecting previous articles on US elections and politics.
In 'Towards the 2024 US Presidential Election: Electoral History and Evidence', we look back at contributions on US politics published in IJES throughout its history, to provide our readers with informed perspectives and evidence ahead of this crucial election.
We start, in chronological reverse order, with Agnew and Shin's geographical account of the 2020 US election, which underscores the importance of upsets in Red or Blue states within the US electoral system, as well as rural-urban dynamics, downplaying recent narratives of extreme political polarisation.
Further, Jackson, Lewis-Beck, and Tien look at pollsters' recent woes in predicting US election outcomes, providing evidence for both an underestimation of Trump's performance and methodological issues in 2016.
Morini's article breaks down the 2012 US election that led to the second Obama term, covering numerous aspects and including the fundamental role of women and minorities in deciding the electoral contest.
Finally, we conclude with excerpts from two Celso Ghini Prize-winning theses. Cristian Vaccari looks at midterm elections in the US particularly through the lens of the 2006 contest, analysing its campaign, party and candidate strategy, and results. Paolo Ronchi provides an overview of US citizens' recall power, with both historical and contemporary accounts.
Overall, this new IJES Virtual Special Issue is an ideal instrument to prepare for and interpret the crucial electoral crossroads of 2024 in the United States.
Articles
The fragile blue wall: analyzing geographies of the 2020 US presidential election
John Agnew and Michael Shin
Pollster problems in the 2016 US presidential election: vote intention, vote prediction
Natalie Jackson, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Charles Tien
La rielezione di Obama. Un'analisi del voto presidenziale 2012 negli Stati Uniti
Marco Morini
Una forma di democrazia diretta: l'esperienza del recall negli Stati Uniti d'America
Paolo Ronchi
Cristian Vaccari
